The problem has been percolating for a while.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It\u2019s been subterranean. Lurking underneath the surface. Not necessarily perceptible.<\/p>\n
Except to those who follow Congress<\/a> closely.<\/p>\n But the issue has gurgled to the top since the House stumbled badly trying to avert a government shutdown last week.<\/p>\n DOZENS OF HOUSE LAWMAKERS RALLY AROUND FUNDING AFGHAN VISA PROGRAMS AS TRUMP VOWS MAJOR SPENDING CUTS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n To wit:\u00a0<\/p>\n Congress spasmed between a staggering, 1,500-page spending bill. Then defeated a narrow, 116-page bill \u2013 which President-elect Trump endorsed. Things got worse when the House only commandeered a scant 174 yeas for the Trump-supported bill and 38 Republicans voted nay. Circumstances grew even more dire when the House actually voted to avert a holiday government shutdown \u2013 but passed the bill with more Democrats (196) than Republicans (170). Thirty-four GOPers voted nay.<\/p>\n It was long likely that House Speaker Mike Johnson<\/a>, R-La., might face a problem winning the speaker\u2019s gavel immediately when the new Congress convenes at noon ET on Jan. 3. Congressional experts knew that Johnson could be in trouble once the contours of the reed-thin House majority came into focus weeks after the November election. This could blossom into a full-blown crisis for Johnson \u2013 and House Republicans \u2013when the speaker\u2019s vote commences a little after 1 p.m. ET next Friday.\u00a0<\/p>\n Johnson emerges bruised from last week\u2019s government funding donnybrook. Anywhere from four to 10 Republicans could oppose Johnson in the speaker\u2019s race.\u00a0<\/p>\n DONALD TRUMP SAYS MIKE JOHNSON WILL \u2018EASILY REMAIN SPEAKER\u2019 IF HE ACTS \u2018DECISIVELY AND TOUGH\u2019 ON SPENDING BILL<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Here\u2019s the math:<\/p>\n The House clocks in at 434 members with one vacancy. That\u2019s thanks to former Rep. Matt Gaetz<\/a>, R-Fla. He resigned his position for this<\/i> Congress a few weeks ago. Even though Gaetz won re-election in November, his resignation letter \u2013 read on the floor of the House \u2013 signaled he did not plan to serve in the new Congress, which begins in January.<\/p>\n This is the breakdown when the Congress starts: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s pick for national security adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz<\/a>, R-Fla., remains in the House for now. So does Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y. Trump tapped her to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. That\u2019s pending Senate confirmation \u2013 perhaps in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resign, the GOP majority dwindles to 217-214.<\/p>\n But the speaker\u2019s election on Jan. 3 poses a special challenge. Here\u2019s the bar for Johnson \u2013 or anyone else: The speaker of the House must win an outright majority of all members casting ballots for someone by name<\/i>. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That\u2019s what happened repeatedly to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when he routinely outpolled House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., for speaker to begin this Congress in January 2023. But it took days for McCarthy to cross the proper threshold.<\/p>\n More on that in a moment.\u00a0<\/p>\n So let\u2019s crunch the math for Mike Johnson. If there are 219 Republicans and four voted for someone besides him \u2013 and all Democrats cast ballots for Jeffries, the tally is 215-214. But there\u2019s no speaker. No one attained an outright majority of all members casting ballots for someone by name. The magic number is 218 if all 434 members vote.\u00a0<\/p>\n By rule, this paralyzes the House. The House absolutely, unequivocally, cannot do anything until it elects a speaker. Period.\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\n The House can\u2019t swear in members. Technically, they\u2019re still representatives-elect. Only after the House chooses its speaker does he or she in turn swear in the membership.\u00a0<\/p>\n The House certainly can\u2019t pass legislation. It can\u2019t form committees. It\u2019s frozen in a parliamentary paralysis until it elects a speaker.<\/p>\n Now, I hope you\u2019re sitting down for the next part.<\/p>\n This also means that the House cannot certify the results of the Electoral College, making Trump<\/a> the 47th president of the United States on Jan. 6.<\/p>\n The failure to elect a speaker compels the House to vote over and over\u2026<\/p>\n And over… and… over\u2026<\/p>\n Until it finally taps someone.\u00a0<\/p>\n McCarthy\u2019s election incinerated 15 ballots over five days two years ago.<\/p>\n The House settled into a congressional cryogenic freeze for three weeks after members ousted McCarthy in October 2023. It burned through two speaker candidates off the floor \u2013 House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. \u2013 and one candidate on the floor: Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.\u00a0<\/p>\n So you see the problem.<\/p>\n Consider for a moment that prior to last year, the House never went to a second ballot to select a speaker since Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.\u00a0<\/p>\n It took 63 ballots before the House finally settled on Speaker Howell Cobb, D-Ga., in 1849.<\/p>\n But that\u2019s nothing. The longest speaker\u2019s election consumed two months before the House elected Speaker Nathaniel Banks, R-Mass., in 1856 \u2013 on the 133rd ballot.<\/p>\n So anything which elongates this into a collision with Jan. 6 – the statutory day to certify the election results and now one of the most ignominious days in American history \u2013 is dangerous.<\/p>\n JOHNSON ALLIES URGE TRUMP TO INTERVENE AS MESSY SPEAKER BATTLE THREATENS TO DELAY 2024 CERTIFICATION<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n To be clear: there is no dispute that Trump won the election. There is no anticipation of a repeat of a riot at the Capitol like four years ago. But a failure to certify the Electoral College on the day it\u2019s supposed to be completed \u2013 especially after the 2021 experience \u2013 is playing with fire. Such a scenario would again reveal another, never-before-considered vulnerability in the fragile American political system.<\/p>\n On Jan. 6, the House and Senate are supposed to meet in a joint session of Congress to tabulate and certify the electoral votes. Any disputes over a state\u2019s slate of electoral votes compels the House and Senate to then debate and vote separately on those results. The election is not final until the joint session concludes and the vice president \u2013 in this case Kamala Harris \u2013 in her capacity as president of the Senate, announces a victor.<\/p>\n Congress is not required to certify the Electoral College on the calendar day of Jan. 6. There is actually some leeway to wrap things up. In 2021, the Electoral College wasn\u2019t certified until around 3:52 a.m. on Jan. 7. It only becomes a major problem if this drags on through noon on Jan. 20. That\u2019s when the Constitution prescribes that the president-elect take the oath of office.\u00a0<\/p>\n What happens if the Electoral College isn\u2019t sorted out by Jan. 20? Well, President Biden is done. So he\u2019s gone. The same with Harris. Next in the presidential line of succession is the speaker of the House. Well, there\u2019s no speaker. So who becomes president?\u00a0<\/p>\n Well, there is at that moment a president pro tempore of the Senate, the most senior member of the majority party. He or she is fourth in line to the presidency. At this moment, the president pro tempore is Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash. But Republicans claim control of the chamber in early January. And unlike the House, if it\u2019s stymied over a speaker, the Senate is functioning<\/i>. That means 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, becomes Senate president pro tempore. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981.\u00a0<\/p>\n If the House is still frittering away time, trying to elect a speaker on Jan. 20, Grassley likely becomes “acting president.”<\/p>\n I write “likely” because this gets into some serious, extra-constitutional turf. These are unprecedented scenarios. Strange lands never visited in the American political experience.\u00a0<\/p>\n And it all hinges on Mike Johnson \u2013 or frankly, someone else \u2013 wrapping up the speaker\u2019s vote with dispatch on Jan. 3. Any interregnum like the past two speaker elections begins to establish challenging historical precedents.\u00a0<\/p>\n But frankly, it\u2019s unclear if the House can avoid such contretemps.\u00a0<\/p>\n It\u2019s about the math. And once again, balancing that parliamentary equation is tenuous at best.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The problem has been percolating for a while.\u00a0 It\u2019s been subterranean. Lurking underneath the surface. Not necessarily perceptible. Except to those who follow Congress closely. But the issue has gurgled to the top since the House stumbled badly trying to avert a government shutdown last week. DOZENS OF HOUSE LAWMAKERS RALLY AROUND FUNDING AFGHAN VISA … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news2shorts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news2shorts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news2shorts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news2shorts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/news2shorts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29178\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news2shorts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news2shorts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news2shorts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}